An
initial public offering set for Thursday by Divine Interventures
Inc. looks anything but heavenly to analysts, and some question
whether the IPO will happen this week as planned.
Tech stocks took a hammering
Wednesday as two software companies warned that their quarterly
earnings will fall short of expectations.
The general jitteriness among
investors with tech issues could be especially bad for Chicago-based
Divine because of an indirect connection to Divine's founder, Andrew
"Flip" Filipowski.
Last year Filipowski sold his
previous company, Platinum Technology International Inc., for $3.5
billion to Computer Associates International Inc., and Computer
Associates was one of the firms Wednesday to say its earnings for
the quarter will disappoint analysts.
Computer Associates' stock dropped
$21.75, or more than 42 percent, on the news. Joining Computer
Associates in taking a beating on Wednesday was the stock of BMC
Software Inc., which also issued an earnings warning and declined
$14.19, or nearly 40 percent. And a ripple effect of wider worries
about mainframe computers saw IBM Corp. shares drop as well, down
$4.81, or more than 4 percent.
Divine is an incubator firm that
helps accelerate the growth of young Internet companies, taking an
equity stake in them. Incubators were hot on Wall Street last year,
but they've cooled in the past quarter, and Divine's plans to go
public in the spring foundered when its lead investment banker
Credit Suisse First Boston advised against an IPO.
In May Filipowski dumped Credit
Suisse and hired San Francisco-based Robertson Stephens to push
ahead. A late June IPO target was missed, and chances it will
proceed this week appear to be fading.
"I've heard nothing concrete,
but the IPO market is relatively soft now," said Charles
Rustein, an analyst with Rorrester Research in Cambridge, Mass.
"It's difficult to see them getting out in this climate."
Filipowski, who has applied his
charisma to give Divine's IPO a high profile, faces a difficult
timing problem, said Rustein.
"If the market sees him try and
try to go public but not make it, then the likelihood of ultimate
failure rises," he said.
Citing the firm's "quiet
period" imposed by the Securities and Exchange Commission, a
Divine spokeswoman wouldn't comment on the IPO.
Even though Divine has attracted
investment from big name tech companies like Microsoft Corp. and
Dell Computer Corp., it needs the IPO to raise money to fulfill its
business plan. After the public offering was delayed in the spring,
Divine laid off 29 employes and pushed back plans to construct a new
campus headquarters at Goose Island in Chicago.
"They have a good story,"
said Ullas Naik, senior vice-president for research at First Albany
Corp. in Boston. "But the market for incubators isn't sturdy
just now."
Two companies similar to Divine—CMGI
Inc. and Internet Capital Group—did go public last year when
investor enthusiasm for the Internet was high. Since reaching high
points late last year, both firms have seen their share value
diminish by more than 75 percent. That in itself could spook
potential investors in Divine.
"They're in trouble either way
they go," said Jeff Hirschkorn, senior marketing analyst with
New York based IPO.com. "It's a good concept and six months
ago, it would have done well in the market.
"But right now the market is
terrible. Still, the longer they wait, the more that hurts
them."